THE VIOLENT MONTHS AHEAD

The ceasefire in Gaza has expired, war spreads in Lebanon and Syria, and peace seems farther away than ever.

By Jake, George, and Kohlton

28 March 2025

This map displays current IDF-held territoty in the disputed Golan Heights. (Credit The Economist 2025)

The past month has been beyond turbulent in the Middle East, as the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas disintegrated and the IDF renewed its actions in Gaza and Lebanon, as well as advances into Syria. Pre-2023 borders may be no more, and peace is not a priority. While civilians push for a lasting security situation, their leaders are reactive, with no good reasons to trust one another, and conclude aggression will achieve more than the negotiation table. They’re wrong - every war ends at the negotiation table, and prolonged conflict today kills and displaces more while setting the stage for the cycle of violence to continue for future generations. 

Our previous optimism for President Trump and his team was ill-placed. The president has unraveled his ambitious - albeit quite dystopian - future for Gaza. Unfortunately, this future seems to exclude actual Gazans. Trump’s plan would relocate all Gazans to an undisclosed location. This is being done in the name of ‘safety’ of Gazans who would have to otherwise navigate a destroyed and dangerous post-war Gaza, filled with mines, tunnels and other potential explosives and hazards. This being a legitimate concern, does not necessarily warrant a complete evacuation of the strip, however. In the meantime, Trump would level Gaza and rebuild as alluded to in an AI-generated video he posted on his social media. Trump thinks in terms of casinos, clubs, hotels and great investments for tourists and wealth in the area - as well as restricting Iran’s influence - but not about actual Gazans. They seem willing to stand up to Hamas, but without support this grassroots movement will be violently curbed as others have been before.

To the north, renewed rocket strikes from Hezbollah into northern Israel and retaliatory strikes into Lebanon have struck targets deep into the northern territory. There is no plan for the withdrawal of IDF troops from southern Lebanon, nor from the Golan Heights in Syria. The IDF claims to be stationed in the land as a “temporary defensive position” in response to the end to the 54-year-old Assad regime on December 8th, 2024 by Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS. The chaos of the new government trying to assert control, and the violence against civilians and minorities in Syria, has added to uncertainty. Hezbollah, weakened by the war with Israel and the death of almost all of its leaders, as well as Iran, remain potent foes, and the has tried to send over militants to Homs to stop the advance of the HTS., However, they were driven back to the Lebanese border, and kept notable strongholds along the border. The Lebanese Armed Forces, representing a new government as well on the other hand, seemed to be stubborn and have decided to stay on the border, until recently signing an agreement with HTS to reaffirm borders.

The previous ceasefire was far from perfect and completely failed in building trust upon which to base future negotiations. But the alternative, a three-front war for Israel and related insecurity and displacement for civilians, cannot be a better alternative. We at ONE appreciate all in the server who have contributed to our perspective of this important issue and keep the community alive. This war will end, and it will be those negotiators and grassroots movements that keep trying no matter the setbacks that make a peaceful and just resolution possible.

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